...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W
TO 18N140W THEN ON TO 05N145W. DESPITE DECENT UPPER
FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY W OF 120W TO SUPPORT
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD
ALONG 37N WILL TEMPORARILY COME IN PHASE WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
BUILD NORTH OF 30N ALONG 135W TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BY LATE
WED...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST...A 1026 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N145W TO WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD TO 33N135W
EARLY WED...THEN NE TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY THU. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW
MAINLY FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 125W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND
0700 UTC SHOWED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT W OF 130W...SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE INITIALIZATIONS FROM BOTH THE WAVEWATCH AND ECMWF WAVE
MODELS.
On the motion and predictability of convective systems: As related to the upper winds in a case of small turning of wind with height (National Severe Storms Project report)
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James C Fankhauser NW SWELL FROM 8 TO 12 FT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
FAR WESTERN DISCUSSION AREA BY WED...REACHING AS FAR W AS 120W
BY THU.

E OF 110W...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
20N115W TO EQUATOR NEAR 80W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W AND
108W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO ASSISTED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE RELATED TO RESIDUAL FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW
FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. THE CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER MEXICO THROUGH WED...AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND ALONG 110W S OF 20N BY THU.
THE GAP FLOW THROUGH BOTH AREAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
WED...BUT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LONG COMBINED PLUMES FROM BOTH AREAS WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS
105W FROM 08N TO 13N...WITH E SWELL AS HIGH AS 10 FT TODAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...
FRESH NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WED AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH.

$$
CHRISTENSEN